FROM THE EDITOR (IWAO Sumiko)

CHRONOLOGY (March-April 2001)

THE KOIZUMI REVOLUTION (KAWACHI Takashi)

The Rise of the Anti-LDP Independents (KABASHIMA Ikuo)

The results of a telephone poll conducted in January 2001 suggest that Japanese voters have turned their backs on the Liberal Democratic Party. The LDP was named the party that voters “most want not to gain seats” in the July House of the Councillors election, and the top-opposition Democratic Party of Japan has overtaken it in party support ratings. Replacing gaffe-prone Prime Minister Mori Yoshirô is unlikely to boost the LDP’s chances, since a majority of voters—even those who claim an affiliation with the LDP—see problems in the party’s basic nature.

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WHITHER JAPAN’S SCHOOLS? (KONDÔ Motohiro)

The Baby Bust and the Lowering of Academic Standards (KARIYA Takehiko)

Universities and two-year colleges are struggling to attract students as the population of school-aged children have begun dwindling by 100,000 every three years. Japan could thus enter an age of “universal college admission” in just eight years. Inasmuch as private institutions depend on tuition and other fees to cover operating costs, maintaining enrollment will be an economic necessity. Thus they are likely to lower admission standards just as new curriculum guidelines will require less of students in primary and secondary education. The reforms to make public universities more financially independent, moreover, may force even the top-notch institutions to open their doors wider to expand enrollment.

First Reform the Educational Bureaucracy (SAKAKIBARA Eisuke)

The plans to slash course content by 30% so as to give children “room to grow” will obviously result in a drop in academic ability. The educational bureaucracy’s plans to cut back the curriculum by almost a third, following smaller reductions in 1980 and 1992, is utterly absurd. All the efforts made over the past two decades to reform the school system have only made things worse. What is now needed is a thorough revision of the School Education Law, which gives bureaucrats their almost “socialistic” control of the school system.

What Is School For? (SAITÔ Takashi)

Schools should properly be seen as a place for passing down humanity’s cultural heritage, not just places to train youngsters to become contributing members of the state and industry. Rather than offer more electives—which could deprive children of opportunities to encounter things of true cultural value—effort should be made to equip students with “basic skills.” While reading, writing, and arithmetic were adequate in the past, children must now be taught (1) imitating and assimilating, (2) planning, and (3) commenting skills to cope in an increasingly complex modern society. These can be objectively measured in the classroom and are important skills in the real world as well.

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PERCEPTIONS OF HISTORY (SHIRAISHI Takashi)

The Ôhira School: An ODA Success Story (MO Bangfu)

For five years beginning in 1980, the Japanese Language Training Center in Beijing provided instruction to 594 Japanese language teachers from more than 160 Chinese universities. The faculty of the “Ôhira School,” as everyone called it, boasted some of the leading names in language education and attracted a highly motivated body of students, including the author. The school was established with Japanese official development assistance after Prime Minister Ôhira Masayoshi voiced a need to step up bilateral exchange, and it represents one of the most successful attempts to promote bilateral friendship.

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A POLICY SHIFT FOR THE AILING ECONOMY (NARIAI Osamu)

Encouraging Moderate Inflation (IWATA Kikuo)

The Nikkei average has plummeted to its lowest levels in the post-bubble era, and land prices in urban areas have tumbled as well. This has pushed up the real value of debt in the economy, making it more difficult for companies to repay their obligations. The Bank of Japan sees falling prices as a positive result of innovations in technology and distribution, but even under inflation, the United States experienced long-term growth, as IT made prices comparatively lower. The first thing Japan must do is escape deflation, since it squeezes corporate profits and delays reforms by making structural changes more costly.

Three Keys to Economic Revival (ITÔ Motoshige)

The choice facing the economy is not one between painful structural changes—which will act as a drag on the economy—and stimulating economic activity, which could deplete the public coffers; both are needed. Speedy disposal of banks’ nonperforming loans will remove the cause of Japan’s economic malaise, and monetary measures to halt deflation will stop the postoperative bleeding. In addition to these, though, nutrients must be injected in the form of supply-side measures, such as deregulation, urban renovation, and revitalization of the stock market. Economic revival will remain elusive if any of these three is missing.

Needed: An All-Out Drive for Higher Productivity (IKEO Kazuhito)

The biggest problem during Japan’s “lost decade” in the 1990s was the strikingly low level of economic activity, with fluctuations centered on a growth rate of around 1%. Resorting to fiscal and monetary tools to boost this level is misguided, for their proper role is to stabilize economic activity. What is needed, therefore, are policy measures to raise productivity, which has fallen markedly since the 1980s. The declining weight in the economy of high-productivity sectors like manufacturing and the rise of the tertiary sector means a lower level of economic activity. To survive in the age of megacompetition, Japan must implement structural reforms to raise its productivity.

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THE TECHNOLOGY RACE

The Eroding Scientific Base of Japan’s National Strength (TSUKIO Yoshio)

Japan’s competitiveness has declined sharply since the mid-1990s, according to rankings published by a Swiss research institute, tumbling to twenty-second in “finance” and twenty-fourth in “management.” Its biggest strength was “science and technology,” ranking second after the United States, but even here its position is slipping. Japan blew early leads in information technology and human genome research and now must play catch-up. It still claims a lead in nanotechnology, but other countries are quickly narrowing the gap. Japan lacks political leadership to identify strategic research areas. Just as the United States sees information power as the country’s greatest resource, Japan too must recognize the importance of information and formulate measures to revive Japan’s competitiveness.

A Japanese Contribution to Global Standards (SAKAMURA Ken)

TRON is a made-in-Japan operating system that is found embedded in almost all Internet-capable mobile phones as well as many car navigation systems and digital cameras. While Windows reigns supreme in personal computers, the Real-time Operating System has become a de facto global standard in consumer electronics. In fact, it far outshines Windows in handling the distinctive writing systems of Asian languages, being capable of accommodating the minor variations in the way the same characters are written in China, Japan, Korea, and Taiwan. The lesson TRON offers is that always chasing after the American model can lead to the loss of cultural diversity.

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GLOBALIZATION

Looking Beyond Asia (YAMAZAKI Masakazu)

The current wave of globalization is making the nation-state obsolete as a basic unit of society, culture, and economy. The hold of the state has been loosened by invisible market forces, which operate according to their own logic, and mass preferences—such as American fast food and Japanese manga—that have won a global following. Some attempt to counter this by equating globalization with Americanization and advocating a new Asian regionalism, but Japan’s neighbors may not be receptive to the idea. Rather than dwell on a national strategy, Japan should think in global terms, rearming itself intellectually to become a true world leader.