FROM THE EDITOR

SENDING TROOPS TO IRAQ The biggest story in the Japanese media in recent weeks has been the dispatch of the Self-Defense Forces to Iraq. The government decided on the basic plan in mid-December; an advance team from the Air Self-Defense Force left for Kuwait and Qatar on December 26, and units from the Ground Self-Defense Force and the Maritime Self-Defense Force will be setting off early in the new year. What had been a topic of debate for a number of months has now become a reality.

In the half century since the SDF were created, they have never before been sent to a danger zone like today’s Iraq. The government’s decision to dispatch units to this troubled area has heightened a number of concerns among the Japanese public, particularly the risk of loss of life among those dispatched and the threat of retaliatory terrorism within Japan, along with doubts about the legality of dispatching the SDF under the Constitution, which renounces military force. But people have also been arguing the risks of not dispatching the SDF.

The main purposes of the deployment are to provide humanitarian assistance for Iraqis and noncombat support for American, British, and other coalition forces. But many Japanese are wondering whether the SDF will actually be able to carry out these functions and whether the Iraqis will welcome their efforts. Opinion polls suggest that a majority opposes dispatching the SDF, and the biggest reason is apparently concern about the danger the forces will face in Iraq. But in one recent poll, more than half of those opposed to sending the SDF declared that Japan should participate in the postwar reconstruction process by sending civilian personnel, including government employees, as well as by providing financial aid. This hardly seems realistic. My own position is that if we intend to send people to help out in this danger zone, our only option is to use the SDF, whose members are more capable than ordinary civilians of defending their own lives.

In a press conference on December 9, Prime Minister Koizumi Jun’ichirô appealed to the nation for support of the government’s decision. In addition to noting that it was important for Japan to provide support for Iraq as a member of the international community, he stressed Japan’s need to maintain its alliance with the United States. This need is all the greater now, given the threat from North Korea. Even so, some Japanese are questioning whether the Japan-US alliance is truly serving Japan’s interests. Another point is that our country depends on the Middle East for nearly 90% of its oil, and we therefore need to avoid giving the Iraqis and others in the region the impression that we are America’s lackeys, thereby ruining the friendly ties that we have built up with them over the years. Koizumi faced not only doubts like these but also the heavy burden of responsibility for any lives that may be lost among the dispatched SDF members. It was doubtless tough for him to make the decision that he did.

One byproduct of the debate over this issue has been the lifting of the virtual taboo on public discussion of amending the Constitution and of matters of national security. Late in December NHK (Japan Broadcasting Corporation) televised a three-part series of programs on national security, and in the final three-hour segment as many as 6,000 viewers responded to the invitation to send in their own views.

PAYING FOR PUBLIC PENSIONS One major issue in last November’s general election was the future of Japan’s public pension system. Unfortunately none of the major parties offered a clear, practical picture of how this system should be funded in the face of a declining birthrate and rapidly aging population. Given such demographics, a pay-as-you-go system like Japan’s, where current benefits are funded by current contributions, is bound to result in some intergenerational inequity. And younger people are deeply distrustful of the existing system; many seem to think that they will get back less than they pay in—or even that the system will break down before they start collecting their own pensions. Despite such skepticism, it is actually quite certain that the public pension system provides a better deal for participants than any private plan, simply because a portion of the cost is covered by payments from the national treasury. Even so, members of the younger age groups are unhappy with the fact that their contribution rates are going to have to be raised, while seniors already receiving their pensions are distressed that they are slated to lose some of the tax breaks they are currently enjoying.

In order to keep the pension system going, it will be necessary to increase the portion of costs paid by the government out of tax revenues. The national treasury currently covers a third of the cost of the basic pension (the flat-rate portion that applies to all regardless of income); it has already been decided to raise this portion to half, and in the future it seems almost certain that the 5% consumption tax will have to be hiked to help cover the growing burden of pension payments.

The finances of the pension system are reviewed regularly once every five years, after which contribution and benefit levels are adjusted as deemed necessary. Based on the most recent review it has been decided to hike the maximum contribution rate for the Employees’ Pension scheme, which covers salaried workers, in stages to 18.35% (employers and employees each paying half) from the current 13.58% and to lower the anticipated level of benefits for the present working-age generation to about 50% of average wages from the current level of about 60%. This plan, however, is based on the official projections of future population, which up to now have consistently underestimated the decline in the birthrate; if the current projections once again prove to have been too optimistic, then it will probably become necessary to cut the benefit level below 50%.

Japan can be proud of its universal-coverage social security system, including pensions, health insurance, and long-term care insurance. This is a system that we definitely need to maintain. But the pace of the reforms being undertaken to keep the various components of the system going is altogether too slow. Politicians in the ruling coalition are now concerned about next summer’s upper house election and are aiming to put off painful changes until the voting is over. But the longer action is delayed, the more serious the problems become.

DEBT GROWS, CRIME RISES The government recently announced its draft budget for fiscal 2004, the year starting this April. The economy has been improving, but the recovery is not yet seen as sufficiently robust to allow taxes to be hiked. Revenues are expected to lag again in the year ahead, and close to half of the budget is to be covered by bond issues. Once again the burden of debt to be borne by future generations is being increased. At this rate, I fear that in the decades to come, the most talented of our young people will decide to seek their fortunes in other countries less encumbered by past borrowing.

Another very troubling development is the rising number of crimes affecting children. About two and a half years ago a knife-wielding psychopath killed 8 pupils and injured another 15 pupils and teachers in an Osaka elementary school. This horrific incident shocked the Japanese out of their complacent belief that schools are safe places, and many school authorities took steps to keep out such trespassers. But last year on December 18 an intruder slashed two first-graders in a Kyoto classroom, and the following day a man lurking in a schoolyard in Hyôgo Prefecture assaulted a sixth-grader. For many years schools strove to meet demands that they be more open to the communities around them, but the need to protect their pupils is now forcing them to move in the opposite direction.

Also last year, 126 cases of child abduction had been reported through mid-October; almost 80% of the victims were girls. To some extent the sensational coverage of these incidents in the media may be encouraging copycat crimes. In response to the overall deterioration in public safety, the government has decided to add 3,150 officers to police forces around the country next fiscal year. But if we really want to cut crime and restore order, we must also work to restore the cooperative spirit of our local communities. (Iwao Sumiko)

© 2004 Japan Echo Inc.